Montreal Island’s residential market kept rebalancing in July 2026. The Indice Tardif — the Tardif Index, a monthly 0-to-100 score of the island’s housing market — comes in at 24.5 out of 100, in “light buyer’s market” territory. Sales are down 16.2% year over year and one listing in three left the market unsold, yet median prices rose in all three major property categories. Buyers are regaining negotiating power — without any price correction to show for it.

The July score: 24.5/100, a light buyer’s market

Methodology v2.1 — Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif. Each sub-score is capped between 0 and 100.

The reading is nuanced. With 1,022 firm sales — transactions with all conditions met in Centris, whether notarized yet or not — against 2,154 new listings, the 47.4% SNLR describes a market still near balance. The two other components tip the score: 512 listings expired during the month, meaning 33.4% of the listings that resolved in July resolved without a sale (25.0% a year ago), and transaction volume fell 16.2% from the same month last year. Fewer sales, more withdrawals: leverage is shifting to the buyer.

The market by category — Montreal Island, July 2026

Medians winsorized at the 5th/95th percentiles. $/sq. ft.: living area for condos, above-ground floor area for other categories. The 13 sales of 5-plus-unit buildings are included in the island total (1,022) but reported separately from the three segments. Every segment above has n ≥ 10: high reliability. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.

Condos: the segment under pressure

The rebalancing is most visible in the condo market. Volume fell from 628 sales in July 2025 to 490 in July 2026 (−22%), median days on market stretched from 46 to 58, and above all, 349 listings expired during the month — a 41.6% expiry ratio, the highest of the three categories. Put differently, more than four in ten condo listings that resolved in July withdrew unsold. The median still edged up to $479,750 (+2.3% year over year): sellers who close get 97.8% of their final asking price, while those who aim too high simply don’t sell.

Single-family homes: still firm and fast

The single-family home remains the island’s strongest category. With 339 sales, a median of $825,000 — up 9.5% in a year — 47 median days on market and an expiry ratio of just 19.7%, the segment is markedly tighter than the rest of the market. Scarcity keeps supporting prices: sales close at a median of 7% above municipal assessment.

Plexes: patient, but prices are climbing

Two-to-four-unit plexes recorded 180 sales, an $881,000 median (+6.8% year over year) and 49 median days on market. Their 25.9% expiry ratio sits between the other two categories. The segment keeps its usual profile: a more patient market where deals get negotiated (97.0% of asking), but where investor and owner-occupant demand sustains price growth ahead of condos.

A two-speed market

The contrast between segments is July’s central lesson. On one side, single-family homes remain a de facto seller’s market: few expirations, short delays, strong price growth. On the other, condos have clearly become a buyer’s market: supply is piling up, delays are stretching, and nearly one in two condo listings that resolved in July withdrew unsold. The overall 24.5 score is the average of those two realities — don’t read it as if every category, or every neighbourhood, were living the same market.

List price vs. sold price: what the negotiation reveals

Across all categories, the median original list price of properties sold in July was $724,500, the median final asking price $700,000, and the median sold price $695,000. The typical sale closed at 96.4% of the original list price but 97.5% of the final asking price — the gap between those two ratios is the price cut conceded along the way. In fact, 30.8% of the properties sold in July had reduced their price at least once before finding a buyer (28.7% in July 2025), with a median reduction of 5.3% when an adjustment occurred. The lesson holds month after month: this market doesn’t refuse to pay — it refuses to overpay, and it waits for the asking price to meet the value.

Days to sell: 53 overall, but the decision happens in 35

The median time from listing to firm sale reached 53 days island-wide, up from 46 days in July 2025 — seven more days in a year, consistent with rising expirations. One important nuance: the median time to an accepted offer is just 35 days. A well-positioned property finds its buyer in five weeks; the rest of the clock is conditions being fulfilled. Sellers with no serious offer after 35 to 40 days have a clear signal: the market has seen the property, and the price is doing the talking.

Bidding wars haven’t disappeared — they’ve concentrated

Even in a 24.5/100 market, 157 properties — 15.4% of the month’s sales — sold above their final asking price (21.9% in July 2025). And when overbidding happens, it’s real: those sales averaged 103.8% of asking (median 102.3%), peaking at 116.8%. Notably, plexes overbid most often: 22.8% of plex sales beat their asking price (averaging 103.8% when they did), versus 14.7% for single-family homes (average 104.3%) and 13.1% for condos (average 103.6%). The message for buyers: a light buyer’s market is not a market without competition — fairly priced properties still draw multiple offers while the others expire.

July’s most active areas

Firm sales for July 2026 by borough (n ≥ 10). Median days: listing to firm sale.

Le Sud-Ouest and Ville-Marie share the title of most active borough at 77 sales each — with very different profiles: 57 median days in Le Sud-Ouest, 74 in Ville-Marie, where downtown condo supply is digesting slowly. The island’s most active single segment is the Ville-Marie condo (72 sales). The real hot spot, however, is Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie: 73 sales, 42 median days, 98.8% of asking obtained — and 30.1% of sales closed above asking, by far the highest overbidding rate among major boroughs. At the speed extremes: Dollard-des-Ormeaux (36 days) and Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve (39 days) are the island’s fastest, while Ville-Marie and Kirkland (74 days) bring up the rear.

Macroeconomic backdrop

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, 2026, striking a slightly more optimistic tone on the Canadian economy, with GDP projected to grow 0.7% in 2026. Inflation eased to 2.8% in June. The best insured 5-year fixed mortgage rates sat around 4.09% at month-end. For the Montreal market, the backdrop is neutral to mildly supportive: borrowing costs have stabilized, but they’re no longer falling fast enough to single-handedly revive a shrinking sales volume.

What it means in practice

Selling a condo. At a 41.6% expiry ratio, the entry price makes all the difference. Condos that sold in July fetched 97.8% of their final asking price — well-positioned sellers sell, and sell near their price. Those who test the market above its value join the month’s 349 expired listings. A rigorous valuation and a fair price from day one beat three successive price cuts.

Looking for a house. The island’s rebalancing hasn’t reached single-family homes: a 19.7% expiry ratio and a median up 9.5% in a year keep the segment competitive. Buyer leverage is real but limited; it comes from preparation — a solid pre-approval and the ability to act within five weeks — more than from aggressive price negotiation.

Investing in a plex. The 2-to-4-unit market offers July’s best of both worlds: more choice and more patience than single-family (25.9% expirations, 49 median days), but prices still climbing (+6.8% year over year) and the month’s highest overbidding rate. There is room to negotiate — without the segment being on sale.