The Tardif Index — May 2026: a balanced market, but under pressure on Montreal Island
Which Way Is the Market Leaning?
Before the numbers, the basic idea. A real estate market is a seesaw between those who want to buy and those who want to sell. When buyers are plentiful and properties scarce, the seesaw tilts toward sellers: prices rise, properties sell quickly. When it’s the opposite, it tilts toward buyers: prices slow down, negotiation is possible. And in between, there’s balance.
The Tardif Index summarizes which way this seesaw is tilting in a single number, from 0 to 100. The closer to 0, the more buyers have the upper hand; the closer to 100, the more it’s sellers. The middle, around 50, is balance.
The May 2026 Number: 50.3
This month, the needle is at 50.3 — right in the heart of the balanced zone. On paper, a calm market.
But “calm” doesn’t tell the whole story. Beneath this 50.3, two forces are pulling against each other. On one side, demand remains solid: people still want to buy, and what sells, sells at a good pace. On the other, fewer and fewer properties are being listed — new listings are down about 7% compared to last year. Supply is quietly tightening.
Where Does This Number Come From? The Three Ingredients
The Tardif Index combines three measures, weighted 40/30/30. Here’s each one, in simple terms.
1. Is It Selling? (40 %)
We compare the number of properties sold to the number of new properties listed. The technical term is the sales-to-new-listings ratio, or SNLR. In May, it’s at 59%: for every 100 newly listed properties, the equivalent of 59 sales. That’s a healthy pace, leaning slightly toward sellers.
2. Are Properties Giving Up? (30 %)
When a property remains listed for months without finding a buyer, the seller sometimes withdraws the listing. This is called an expiration. A high expiration rate signals a soft market, favorable to buyers. In May, this ratio is 21.3%.
3. Are We Speeding Up or Slowing Down? (30 %)
We compare this month’s sales volume with the same month last year — the annual momentum. Like a car: driving at 100 km/h while accelerating isn’t the same as at 100 km/h while braking. In May, momentum is −3.2%: the market is moving slightly slower than a year ago.
Breakdown by Category
The index goes down to property type and borough. Here are the main categories for May 2026, on Montreal Island.
| Category | Sales | Median Price | Median Time | Negotiation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condominium | 777 | $480,000 | 46 days | 98.0% |
| Single-Family | 431 | $779,000 | 37 days | 98.0% |
| Duplex | 135 | $850,000 | 42 days | 98.8% |
| Triplex | 80 | $950,000 | 45 days | 96.8% |
| 4-plex | 33 | $1,060,000 | 58 days | 96.4% |
The “negotiation ratio” is the median sale price relative to the last asking price. At approximately 98%, it indicates that sellers whose price is aligned with comparables obtain most of their expectations.
Multi-Unit Buildings (5 and More)
For a large building, the total price doesn’t mean much: a 5-unit and a 20-unit aren’t comparable. So we use the price per door — the price divided by the number of units. In May, across 33 firm sales of five units and more, the median price per door stands at $219,893, and the gross rent multiplier (the price relative to the building’s revenues) at 16.72x.
What Moves the Market: Economic Context
The index measures the market’s temperature. But what heats or cools the room? Five forces.
Interest Rates
The Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at 2.25%. A 5-year fixed mortgage rate hovers around 4%. At this level, borrowing remains affordable.
Employment
Unemployment at 6.2% in Quebec and 7.7% in Montreal — its highest since 2016 outside the pandemic. Demand is becoming more cautious.
GDP and Inflation
Growth of approximately 1.2% — neither recession nor euphoria. Inflation at 2.4%, under control. No shock to fear on the borrowing front in the near term.
Population
Permanent immigration reduced to ~45,000 admissions. Montreal continues to lose residents to the regions. The tailwind that was pushing Montreal demand is weakening.
Interest Rates
This is the most powerful lever. The Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at 2.25%, and a 5-year fixed mortgage rate hovers around 4%. At this level, borrowing remains affordable: rates are supporting demand rather than stifling it. Rates don’t set the price of a house, but they decide how much house you can afford.
Employment
To buy, you need stable income and confidence it will last. In April 2026, the unemployment rate reached 6.2% in Quebec and 7.7% in the Montreal region — its highest level since 2016, excluding the pandemic period. When unemployment rises like this, demand doesn’t disappear, but it becomes more cautious.
GDP and Inflation
The economy is growing at approximately 1.2% — a sluggish pace, neither recession nor euphoria. Inflation, at 2.4%, is under control, which is good news for real estate: as long as it remains calm, the Bank of Canada has no reason to sharply raise rates. No shock to fear on the borrowing front in the near term.
Population
The more people there are, the more housing demand there is. Three movements are now going in the same direction. Quebec is targeting reduced permanent immigration, around 45,000 admissions per year, and is more tightly regulating temporary immigration. In parallel, internal movements are disadvantaging major centers: in 2024-2025, 182,500 people changed administrative regions in Quebec, and Montreal and Laval continue to lose residents to the regions. The tailwind that was pushing Montreal demand is weakening.
What Should We Take Away?
A solid floor — reasonable rates, calm inflation — prevents the market from falling. But three caution signals — rising unemployment, a slowing economy, demand whose drivers are closing — prevent it from overheating.
The result isn’t a crash. It’s a more selective market: demand still exists, but it’s more cautious, more price-sensitive, more demanding about the actual quality of the product. The decent property, well-located, well-priced, still sells very well. The average property with too ambitious a price waits.
Methodology in Brief
The Tardif Index is a weekly and monthly indicator of transactional conditions in Montreal Island’s residential market — the 19 boroughs and 15 linked cities. It combines three components weighted 40/30/30 (sales-to-new-listings, expirations, annual momentum) into a score from 0 to 100. Sales are counted based on the month’s firm sales, the majority of which are not yet notarized: this basis reflects the current market rather than a delayed picture. Medians by segment are only published above ten transactions. The complete methodology is published here. The indicator is complementary to the Centris HPI and APCIQ statistics.
Frequently Asked Questions
Published by Endurance Groupe Immobilier, under the methodological responsibility of David Tardif, real estate broker registered with OACIQ.