Tardif Index™ · Monthly edition · The science of real estate
The Tardif Index™, September 2026: the Island of Montreal at 16.7/100 — strong buyer zone
The Tardif Index™ stands at 16.7 out of 100, in the strong buyer zone, in September 2026. Meanwhile, the Island of Montreal score declines for a second consecutive month: 24.5 in July, 18.1 in August, 16.7 in September. Indeed, new listings rise faster than sales (3,150 versus 2,402 in August, up 31.1%, against 1,087 sales versus 883, up 23.1%), and expirations nearly double: 824 versus 429.
At a glance — Island of Montreal, September 2026
- 16.7/100 — strong buyer zone, versus 18.1 in August. 1,087 sales for 3,150 new listings: a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 34.5%, and 824 expirations, or 43.1% of resolved listings (sales + expirations).
- Year over year: sales fall 14.0% (1,264 in September 2025), while expirations rise 17.2% (703 in September 2025).
- At the segment level: 30 category × borough segments reach the publication threshold of 10 sales. Thus, Ville-Marie condominiums record the most (76 sales, median price of $449,000, 103 days).
The Tardif Index™ score, component by component — September 2026
| Component | Weight | September 2026 | Sub-score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) | 40% | 34.5% (1,087 / 3,150) | 41.8 |
| Expiry ratio | 30% | 43.1% (824 expirations) | 0.0 |
| Year-over-year sales momentum (YoY) | 30% | −14.0% (1,087 vs 1,264) | 0.0 |
| The Tardif Index™ — Island of Montreal | 16.7 / 100 · STRONG BUYER ZONE |
Methodological transparency: as in August, two of the three components sit at their floor of 0. In fact, the expiry sub-score reaches 0 at a 30% ratio, and the momentum sub-score at −10% year over year. The 16.7 is therefore carried by the sales-to-new-listings ratio alone: on those two components, the island index cannot fall any lower, whatever the real deterioration. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty). Public methodology v2.1.
The Tardif Index™ for September 2026 versus August 2026 and September 2025
| Measure — Island of Montreal | Sept. 2025 | Aug. 2026 | Sept. 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 1,264 | 883 | 1,087 |
| New listings | — | 2,402 | 3,150 |
| Expirations | 703 | 429 | 824 |
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) | — | 36.8% | 34.5% |
| Expiry ratio | 35.7% | 32.7% | 43.1% |
| The Tardif Index™ | Not published | 18.1 · strong buyer zone | 16.7 · strong buyer zone |
September 2026 changes: sales −14.0% year over year (1,264 → 1,087) and +23.1% on August (883 → 1,087); expirations +17.2% year over year (703 → 824) and +92.1% on August (429 → 824); new listings +31.1% on August (2,402 → 3,150). Moreover, new listings for September 2025 are not in the extraction. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty).
The Tardif Index™ for September 2026: which Island of Montreal segments are the most active?
Condominiums: 13 publishable segments
| Borough / linked city | n | Median price | Time on market | % of asking price | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ville-Marie | 76 | $449,000 | 103 d | 96.7% | High |
| Le Sud-Ouest | 53 | $534,700 | 84 d | 98.3% | High |
| Le Plateau-Mont-Royal | 51 | $535,000 | 34 d | 98.3% | High |
| Verdun | 39 | $675,000 | 39 d | 97.8% | High |
| Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | 34 | $559,000 | 41 d | 98.7% | High |
| Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | 28 | $373,889 | 42 d | 98.1% | Moderate |
| Côte-des-Neiges–Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | 25 | $590,000 | 56 d | 96.7% | Moderate |
| Saint-Laurent | 24 | $473,750 | 82 d | 97.5% | Moderate |
| LaSalle | 16 | $395,000 | 84 d | 96.8% | Moderate |
| Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension | 15 | $455,000 | 92 d | 97.7% | Moderate |
| Ahuntsic-Cartierville | 13 | $389,000 | 42 d | 97.8% | Low |
| Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles | 12 | $414,950 | 60 d | 97.9% | Low |
| Lachine | 10 | $364,950 | 93 d | 97.1% | Low |
Single-family homes: 10 publishable segments
| Borough / linked city | n | Median price | Time on market | % of asking price | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles | 38 | $565,000 | 44.5 d | 97.7% | High |
| Pierrefonds-Roxboro | 35 | $630,000 | 36 d | 97.1% | High |
| Saint-Laurent | 20 | $968,444 | 81.5 d | 95.2% | Moderate |
| Dollard-des-Ormeaux | 17 | $775,000 | 43 d | 96.8% | Moderate |
| Côte-des-Neiges–Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | 16 | $1,360,000 | 55 d | 96.8% | Moderate |
| Beaconsfield | 15 | $950,000 | 27 d | 97.1% | Moderate |
| Pointe-Claire | 13 | $684,000 | 26 d | 98.9% | Low |
| Kirkland | 11 | $1,140,000 | 65 d | 96.0% | Low |
| Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | 11 | $645,000 | 36 d | 97.7% | Low |
| Ahuntsic-Cartierville | 10 | $977,500 | 43.5 d | 99.2% | Low |
Plex: 7 publishable segments
| Borough / linked city | n | Median price | Time on market | % of asking price | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | 25 | $910,000 | 87 d | 96.5% | Moderate |
| Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | 25 | $967,500 | 47 d | 97.8% | Moderate |
| Ahuntsic-Cartierville | 24 | $945,000 | 60 d | 97.0% | Moderate |
| Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension | 20 | $918,500 | 54 d | 97.5% | Moderate |
| Le Sud-Ouest | 15 | $860,000 | 43 d | 96.9% | Moderate |
| LaSalle | 10 | $912,500 | 46.5 d | 97.9% | Low |
| Montréal-Nord | 10 | $772,500 | 104.5 d | 98.0% | Low |
Firm sales dated September 2026, Island of Montreal. Only segments with 10 or more sales (n ≥ 10) are published; therefore no figure is estimated or filled in. “Time on market” = median number of days between listing and firm sale. “% of asking price” = median ratio of sale price to last asking price, calculated across all sales in the segment. “Reliability” = the methodology’s classification based on sample size n. These tables for The Tardif Index™ of September 2026 describe segment medians: they therefore do not constitute a score by sector. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty).
Editorial reading of The Tardif Index™ for September 2026: what the numbers show
Incoming supply is rising faster than demand. In The Tardif Index™ for September 2026, the Island of Montreal records 2.9 new listings per sale (3,150 for 1,087), versus 2.7 in August (2,402 for 883). Thus, the gap between what comes onto the market and what closes widens, hence the drop in the sales-to-new-listings ratio from 36.8% to 34.5%.
Expirations are the component that moves the most. 824 listings expired without a sale in September, versus 429 in August and 703 in September 2025. In The Tardif Index™ for September 2026, the expiry ratio moves from 32.7% to 43.1%: more than four resolved listings out of ten end without a transaction. However, an expiration is not a withdrawal; it only means no sale was concluded during the term of the listing contract.
Same category, different paces. Condominiums sell in a median of 34 days in Le Plateau-Mont-Royal (51 sales), 39 days in Verdun (39 sales), 84 days in Le Sud-Ouest (53 sales) and 103 days in Ville-Marie (76 sales). The Tardif Index™ for September 2026 describes a general trend for the island; however, the times above show that it does not play out the same way from one borough to the next.
This section is an editorial reading of the data published above. It is neither a forecast nor advice about any particular property.
Cite The Tardif Index™ for September 2026
Frequently asked questions about The Tardif Index™ for September 2026
What is The Tardif Index™?
The Tardif Index™ is a monthly 0-to-100 indicator of residential transaction conditions on the Island of Montreal. It is published by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty) under the methodological responsibility of David Tardif, a real estate broker licensed by the OACIQ. It thus combines the sales-to-new-listings ratio (40%), the expiry ratio (30%) and year-over-year sales momentum (30%). In September 2026 it stands at 16.7 out of 100. Methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/.
Why does The Tardif Index™ fall from 18.1 to 16.7 between August and September 2026?
The sales-to-new-listings ratio slips from 36.8% to 34.5%: indeed, new listings rise from 2,402 to 3,150 (+31.1%), while sales rise from 883 to 1,087 (+23.1%). Moreover, the expiry ratio climbs from 32.7% to 43.1% (824 expirations). Two of the three components therefore sit at their floor, and the 16.7 score rests on the sales-to-new-listings ratio alone. Methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/.
Which territory does The Tardif Index™ cover?
The Tardif Index™ covers the Island of Montreal: the 19 boroughs of the City of Montreal and the 15 linked cities. However, it excludes Laval and the South Shore. Thus, the 1,087 sales and 3,150 new listings for September 2026 relate exclusively to this island territory. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty).
Are more listings expiring on the Island of Montreal in 2026?
Yes. In September 2026, 824 listings expired without a sale on the Island of Montreal, versus 703 in September 2025, an increase of 17.2%. In addition, the expiry ratio, meaning expirations divided by the sum of sales and expirations, reaches 43.1% (32.7% in August 2026). Both years are measured on the same calendar month. Source: Centris data. Archives: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/category/tardif-index/.
How does September 2026 compare with September 2025?
Island of Montreal sales fall 14.0% year over year, from 1,264 to 1,087, while expirations rise 17.2%, from 703 to 824. As a result, the expiry ratio moves from 35.7% to 43.1%. However, The Tardif Index™ has no published score for September 2025. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty).
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The Tardif Index™ combines three signals with a 40/30/30 weighting: the sales-to-new-listings ratio, the expiry ratio and year-over-year sales momentum. Segments with fewer than 10 sales are not published, and no figure is estimated or filled in. The score is monthly; the weekly bulletin therefore only reports it. The indicator covers the 19 boroughs of the City of Montreal and the 15 linked cities. It is also complementary to the Centris HPI and APCIQ statistics. Public methodology v2.1. Content released under a CC BY 4.0 licence: reproduction and citation permitted with attribution. Finally, The Tardif Index™ is the data arm of David Tardif’s “The science of real estate”. All editions: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index. About: Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty). This report presents aggregated market conditions and is not an opinion on any particular property.
David Tardif, real estate broker licensed by the OACIQ — Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty) · 5227 rue Wellington, Verdun (QC) H4H 1N1 · 514-418-1094 · info@enduranceimmobilier.com