Tardif Index™ South Shore October 2026 · Monthly edition · The science of real estate
Tardif Index™ October 2026: the South Shore at 27.4/100 — light buyer zone
The Tardif Index™ South Shore stands at 27.4 out of 100, in the light buyer zone, in October 2026.
The Tardif Index™ South Shore, indicator of residential transaction conditions for the South Shore, is published by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty) under the methodological responsibility of David Tardif, real estate broker licensed by the OACIQ. The light buyer zone groups scores from 20.1 to 40 out of 100. It describes a market in which buyers keep a negotiating advantage, less marked than in the strong buyer zone. This edition is published at the following address, which serves as the citation link: https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/cision-october-2026-south-shore/. The complete methodology is published at https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/ (Public methodology v2.1).
Does the South Shore market favour buyers in October 2026?
Yes, with a moderate advantage. The score of 27.4 out of 100 places the South Shore in the light buyer zone for October 2026. This is the first publication of this score: the North Shore and the South Shore are added to The Tardif Index™ with the same formula as the Island of Montreal, and no earlier score exists for this territory. The score is above that of the Island of Montreal (21.5) because the sales-to-new-listings ratio is higher here (51.0%, versus 42.4% on the island).
Tardif Index™ South Shore October 2026: what are the key data?
South Shore • all residential categories • October 2026 (October 1 to 31) • Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty)
- Residential sales, October 2026: 1,014 sales
- Residential sales, October 2025: 1,235 sales
- Year-over-year momentum of sales (YoY), October 2026: −17.9%
- New listings, October 2026: 1,989 listings (October 2025: 1,827, or +8.9%)
- Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR), October 2026: 51.0% (1,014 ÷ 1,989)
- Expirations, October 2026: 419 listings (October 2025: 340, or +23.2%)
- Expirations ratio, October 2026: 29.2% (419 ÷ (1,014 + 419))
Tardif Index™ South Shore October 2026: how is the score of 27.4 out of 100 calculated?
The Tardif Index™ South Shore combines three weighted components, each converted into a sub-score from 0 to 100 according to the Public methodology v2.1.
| Component | Weight | October 2026 value | Sub-score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) | 40% | 51.0% | 66.5 | Above the 40% neutral point |
| Expirations ratio | 30% | 29.2% | 2.6 | Near the floor, which is reached at 30% |
| Year-over-year momentum of sales (YoY) | 30% | −17.9% | 0.0 | At the floor (decline greater than 10%) |
| Composite score | 100% | — | 27.4 | Light buyer zone |
Methodological transparency: the expirations sub-score reaches 0 at a ratio of 30%, and the momentum sub-score at −10% over one year. Here, momentum (−17.9%) is at its floor and the expirations ratio (29.2%) is below the 30% threshold; the score therefore rests mostly on absorption (SNLR).
Tardif Index™ South Shore October 2026: how does it compare with September 2026 and October 2025?
| Measure | October 2025 | September 2026 | October 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | Not calculated | Not calculated | 27.4 • light buyer |
| Residential sales | 1,235 | 1,053 | 1,014 |
| New listings | 1,827 | 2,190 | 1,989 |
| Expirations | 340 | 392 | 419 |
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) | 67.6% | 48.1% | 51.0% |
| Expirations ratio | 21.6% | 27.1% | 29.2% |
Over one year, sales fall 17.9% (from 1,235 to 1,014) and expirations rise 23.2% (from 340 to 419).
Note on the comparison base: the volumes for the three months come from the Centris data control totals by category, extracted on November 3, 2026. No score is published for September 2026 or for October 2025: this is the first edition of The Tardif Index™ South Shore. The ratios for those two periods are given as reference points.
Which property categories move the most in October 2026?
| Category | Sales | New listings | Expirations | SNLR | Expirations ratio | Sales, year over year | Median price | Median price, year over year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condominium | 269 | 587 | 146 | 45.8% | 35.2% | −24.4% | $399,000 | +1.8% |
| Single-family | 669 | 1,206 | 235 | 55.5% | 26.0% | −14.2% | $620,900 | +0.7% |
| Duplex | 32 | 56 | 14 | 57.1% | 30.4% | −11.1% | $697,500 | +11.2% |
| Triplex | 30 | 79 | 11 | 38.0% | 26.8% | −26.8% | $845,000 | +5.6% |
| Fourplex | 6 | 23 | 1 | 26.1% | 14.3% | −33.3% | n < 10 | — |
| Multi-unit 5+ | 8 | 38 | 12 | 21.1% | 60.0% | −38.5% | n < 10 | — |
| All categories | 1,014 | 1,989 | 419 | 51.0% | 29.2% | −17.9% | — | — |
South Shore, October 2026, Centris data control totals by category. Annual changes compared with October 2025. The median price is the central value of the month’s sales, unweighted. A median is published only for 10 or more sales (“n < 10” otherwise).
Which municipalities of the South Shore are the most active in October 2026?
33 category × municipality segments reach the publication threshold of 10 sales (n ≥ 10), spread over 24 municipalities. The other 35 municipalities on the list have no publishable segment this month: they are included in the score, but no figure is published at their level.
Condominiums: 7 publishable segments
| Municipality | n | Median price | Median time on market (days) | Negotiation ratio | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longueuil | 55 | $400,000 | 39 | 98.2% | High |
| Brossard | 36 | $365,000 | 53.5 | 97.7% | High |
| La Prairie | 17 | $443,000 | 44 | 99.1% | Moderate |
| Saint-Lambert | 15 | $540,000 | 65 | 97.7% | Moderate |
| Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu | 13 | $367,000 | 33 | 98.2% | Low |
| Vaudreuil-Dorion | 13 | $360,000 | 50 | 97.6% | Low |
| Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville | 10 | $467,500 | 36.5 | 98.7% | Low |
Single-family homes: 24 publishable segments
| Municipality | n | Median price | Median time on market (days) | Negotiation ratio | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longueuil | 79 | $572,000 | 36 | 98.0% | High |
| Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu | 53 | $585,000 | 43 | 97.9% | High |
| Brossard | 39 | $720,000 | 51 | 97.6% | High |
| Boucherville | 31 | $726,000 | 24 | 98.8% | High |
| Châteauguay | 25 | $493,000 | 56 | 98.0% | Moderate |
| Sainte-Julie | 24 | $619,950 | 29 | 99.1% | Moderate |
| Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville | 22 | $771,500 | 35 | 97.8% | Moderate |
| Vaudreuil-Dorion | 20 | $618,000 | 39.5 | 98.2% | Moderate |
| Beloeil | 17 | $580,000 | 36 | 100.0% | Moderate |
| La Prairie | 17 | $740,000 | 26 | 99.3% | Moderate |
| Saint-Constant | 17 | $630,000 | 29 | 97.5% | Moderate |
| Saint-Lazare | 17 | $750,000 | 41 | 97.2% | Moderate |
| Chambly | 16 | $650,000 | 37 | 98.1% | Moderate |
| Varennes | 16 | $617,000 | 35 | 98.9% | Moderate |
| Contrecœur | 15 | $510,000 | 38 | 97.9% | Moderate |
| Pincourt | 15 | $625,000 | 32 | 97.3% | Moderate |
| Beauharnois | 13 | $470,000 | 65 | 97.9% | Low |
| Saint-Lambert | 13 | $1,249,000 | 33 | 95.9% | Low |
| Mont-Saint-Hilaire | 12 | $962,500 | 36 | 97.5% | Low |
| Saint-Zotique | 12 | $490,000 | 29 | 97.8% | Low |
| Sainte-Catherine | 12 | $594,500 | 38.5 | 99.3% | Low |
| Carignan | 11 | $799,000 | 32 | 98.9% | Low |
| Otterburn Park | 11 | $620,000 | 49 | 98.0% | Low |
| Candiac | 10 | $790,000 | 34.5 | 98.0% | Low |
Duplexes: 1 publishable segment
| Municipality | n | Median price | Median time on market (days) | Negotiation ratio | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longueuil | 14 | $803,500 | 37 | 100.0% | Low |
Triplexes: 1 publishable segment
| Municipality | n | Median price | Median time on market (days) | Negotiation ratio | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longueuil | 14 | $862,500 | 35 | 97.4% | Low |
Firm sales dated October 2026, South Shore, Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty). The tables rest on the 941 firm sales compiled one by one, or 92.8% of the 1,014 sales in the control totals used for the score. Only segments with 10 or more sales are published; no figure is estimated or filled in. “Median time on market”: median number of days between listing and firm sale. “Negotiation ratio”: median ratio of the sale price to the last asking price. “Reliability”: high at 30 or more sales, moderate from 15 to 29, low from 10 to 14. These tables describe medians by segment: they are not a score by sector.
Sectoral reading: what does the formula give for each municipality of the South Shore in October 2026?
This sectoral reading applies, as editorial commentary, the formula of the Public methodology v2.1 (sales-to-new-listings ratio 40%, expirations ratio 30%, year-over-year momentum of sales 30%) to each municipality with at least 10 sales (n ≥ 10) in October 2026: 26 municipalities out of 59. It complements the score of 27.4 out of 100 presented above without replacing it.
Across these 26 municipalities, the sectoral readings break down as follows: 2 in the strong buyer zone, 11 in the light buyer zone, 4 in the balanced zone, 8 in the light seller zone, 1 in the strong seller zone. Among sectors with high reliability (n ≥ 30), the lowest sectoral reading is that of Brossard (18.7 out of 100, n=78) and the highest that of La Prairie (70.8 out of 100, n=34).
| Municipality | Sample size (n) | Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) | Expirations ratio | Year-over-year momentum (YoY) | Sectoral reading (out of 100) | Zone of the sectoral reading | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longueuil | 163 | 41.8% | 28.5% | −26.2% | 22.6 | light buyer | High |
| Brossard | 78 | 37.9% | 41.4% | −10.3% | 18.7 | strong buyer | High |
| Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu | 78 | 39.8% | 28.4% | −22.0% | 21.5 | light buyer | High |
| Boucherville | 39 | 55.7% | 23.5% | −9.3% | 37.0 | light buyer | High |
| Châteauguay | 34 | 43.0% | 26.1% | −20.9% | 25.8 | light buyer | High |
| La Prairie | 34 | 65.4% | 24.4% | +21.4% | 70.8 | light seller | High |
| Vaudreuil-Dorion | 34 | 51.5% | 22.7% | −24.4% | 34.2 | light buyer | High |
| Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville | 32 | 139.1% | 22.0% | −8.6% | 50.2 | balanced | High |
| Saint-Lambert | 28 | 58.3% | 30.0% | 0.0% | 46.0 | balanced | Moderate |
| Sainte-Julie | 28 | 45.9% | 24.3% | +7.7% | 55.8 | balanced | Moderate |
| Saint-Constant | 27 | 56.3% | 22.9% | +22.7% | 66.9 | light seller | Moderate |
| Beloeil | 25 | 89.3% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 65.7 | light seller | Moderate |
| Chambly | 25 | 49.0% | 16.7% | −34.2% | 38.8 | light buyer | Moderate |
| Contrecœur † | 21 | 70.0% | 27.6% | +162.5% | 70.4 | light seller | Moderate |
| Pincourt | 19 | 70.4% | 26.9% | +46.2% | 71.3 | light seller | Moderate |
| Beauharnois | 18 | 62.1% | 10.0% | +5.9% | 77.1 | light seller | Moderate |
| Saint-Lazare | 18 | 48.6% | 28.0% | −28.0% | 27.2 | light buyer | Moderate |
| Varennes | 18 | 78.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 70.7 | light seller | Moderate |
| Sainte-Catherine | 17 | 81.0% | 10.5% | +6.3% | 83.9 | strong seller | Moderate |
| Candiac | 16 | 50.0% | 42.9% | −42.9% | 26.0 | light buyer | Moderate |
| Mont-Saint-Hilaire | 15 | 25.4% | 37.5% | −44.4% | 11.3 | strong buyer | Moderate |
| Saint-Amable | 14 | 37.8% | 12.5% | −36.4% | 36.2 | light buyer | Low |
| Saint-Basile-le-Grand | 13 | 37.1% | 23.5% | −35.0% | 24.8 | light buyer | Low |
| Saint-Zotique † | 13 | 61.9% | 38.1% | +85.7% | 63.1 | light seller | Low |
| Carignan | 12 | 42.9% | 25.0% | −25.0% | 26.7 | light buyer | Low |
| Otterburn Park | 12 | 40.0% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 57.3 | balanced | Low |
Sectoral reading — editorial application of the Tardif Index™ formula to a territory smaller than the Island of Montreal. Not part of the official series. Sample size: n=12 to 163 depending on the sector (“Sample size (n)” column of the table).
Methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology
Sectoral readings for October 2026, South Shore, Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty). Each sectoral reading applies the formula to the firm sales and expirations of October 2026 compiled one by one for the sector, to the sector’s new listings of October 2026 and to the firm sales compiled for October 2025 (year-over-year momentum). The compiled sales represent 92.8% of the 1,014 sales in the control totals used for the South Shore score: sectoral readings are therefore not directly comparable with that score. Only sectors with 10 or more sales are published; the other 33 municipalities on the list do not reach this threshold, and no figure is estimated or filled in. “Reliability”: high at 30 or more sales, moderate from 15 to 29, low from 10 to 14. † October 2025 base under 10 sales: the year-over-year momentum of this sector should be read with caution. A ratio above 100% means that the month’s sales exceed the month’s new listings. A sectoral reading describes one sector for one month: it is neither archived, versioned, nor a forecast.
Which area does The Tardif Index™ South Shore cover?
The territory brings together the Longueuil agglomeration and the municipalities of the southern crown, for 59 reference municipalities, grouped by regional county or territory: Agglomération de Longueuil: Longueuil, Brossard, Saint-Lambert, Boucherville, Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville; Marguerite-D’Youville: Varennes, Verchères, Saint-Amable, Sainte-Julie, Contrecœur, Calixa-Lavallée; Vallée-du-Richelieu: Saint-Basile-le-Grand, McMasterville, Beloeil, Mont-Saint-Hilaire, Otterburn Park, Chambly, Carignan, Saint-Mathias-sur-Richelieu, Saint-Mathieu-de-Belœil, Saint-Jean-Baptiste; Rouville: Richelieu; Haut-Richelieu: Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu; Roussillon: La Prairie, Candiac, Delson, Saint-Constant, Sainte-Catherine, Saint-Philippe, Châteauguay, Mercier, Léry, Saint-Isidore, Saint-Mathieu; Beauharnois-Salaberry: Beauharnois; Vaudreuil-Soulanges: Vaudreuil-Dorion, Vaudreuil-sur-le-Lac, L’Île-Perrot, Notre-Dame-de-l’Île-Perrot, Pincourt, Terrasse-Vaudreuil, Les Cèdres, Hudson, Saint-Lazare, Rigaud, Coteau-du-Lac, Les Coteaux, Pointe-des-Cascades, Saint-Clet, Saint-Polycarpe, Saint-Télesphore, Saint-Zotique, Sainte-Justine-de-Newton, Très-Saint-Rédempteur, L’Île-Cadieux, Sainte-Marthe, Rivière-Beaudette, Pointe-Fortune; Territoire autochtone (Roussillon): Kahnawake (Mohawk Territory). The 23 municipalities that were not on the original official list (seen in Centris data and attached to the shore by their position relative to the river) are included in both years compared.
What do the October 2026 figures show? Editorial reading
Absorption supports the score; the other two components limit it. The sales-to-new-listings ratio reaches 51.0% in October 2026 (1,014 sales for 1,989 listings), versus 48.1% in September. The expirations ratio (29.2%) leaves a sub-score of 2.6, and year-over-year momentum (−17.9%) hits its floor of 0.
Single-family homes drive the market. They account for 66.0% of the territory’s sales (669 of 1,014), with a median price of $620,900 (+0.7% over one year) and a median time of 17 days. Among the published municipalities, Longueuil (79 sales, $572,000) and Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu (53 sales, $585,000) are the most active.
Different paces from one municipality to the next. For single-family homes, the median time is 24 days in Boucherville (31 sales) and 56 days in Châteauguay (25 sales). In condominiums, Longueuil has 55 sales at a median price of $400,000.
Expirations are rising faster than sales. Over one year, sales fall 17.9% (1,235 to 1,014) while expirations rise 23.2% (340 to 419). From one month to the next, sales change −3.7% and new listings −9.2%.
This section is an editorial reading of the data published above. It is neither a forecast nor advice on any particular property.
And the other two territories of The Tardif Index™?
The three October 2026 scores are calculated with the same formula and are never added together: Island of Montreal 21.5, North Shore 32.2, South Shore 27.4, all in the light buyer zone. See The Tardif Index™ and The Tardif Index™ North Shore.
Who publishes The Tardif Index™?
The Tardif Index™ is published under the methodological responsibility of David Tardif, real estate broker licensed by the OACIQ (licence E2815). The score is monthly; it is complementary to the Centris HPI and APCIQ statistics. The Centris HPI tracks price trends; The Tardif Index™ measures transaction conditions. The reference page, which also gathers previous editions, is at https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/, and David Tardif’s profile is at https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/david-tardif/.
Frequently asked questions
What is The Tardif Index™ South Shore?
The Tardif Index™ South Shore is a monthly 0-to-100 indicator of residential transaction conditions in this territory. It combines the sales-to-new-listings ratio (40%), the expirations ratio (30%) and the year-over-year momentum of sales (30%). In October 2026, it stands at 27.4 out of 100, in the light buyer zone. It is published monthly. Methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/.
Does the South Shore market favour buyers in October 2026?
At 27.4 out of 100, the South Shore is in the light buyer zone (20.1 to 40), where buyers keep a negotiating advantage. Sales are down 17.9% year over year (1,235 to 1,014). The expirations ratio is 29.2%. This score describes the month just ended; it is neither a forecast nor advice. Archives: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/.
How does October 2026 compare with October 2025 in the South Shore?
Sales go from 1,235 to 1,014 (−17.9%), new listings from 1,827 to 1,989 (+8.9%) and expirations from 340 to 419 (+23.2%). The sales-to-new-listings ratio goes from 67.6% to 51.0%, and the expirations ratio from 21.6% to 29.2%. Source: Centris data, control totals. Figures cover the whole territory, all residential categories.
What is the median price of single-family homes in the South Shore in October 2026?
The median price of single-family homes sold in October 2026 is $620,900, or +0.7% compared with October 2025 ($616,500), on 669 sales. The median time to sell is 17 days. Single-family homes account for 66.0% of the territory’s sales, and the condominium median is $399,000. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty). Methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/.
Which areas does The Tardif Index™ South Shore cover?
The score covers 59 reference municipalities (the Longueuil agglomeration and the southern crown). 24 of them reach the 10-sale threshold in at least one category in October 2026; the others are included in the score, but no segment is published for them. Published segments appear in the tables above, by category. See the methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/.
How do the three territories of The Tardif Index™ compare in October 2026?
The three scores use the same formula: 21.5 out of 100 for the Island of Montreal, 32.2 for the North Shore and 27.4 for the South Shore, all in the light buyer zone. The sales-to-new-listings ratio is 42.4%, 55.5% and 51.0%. The scores are never added together, and each has its own page. Archives: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/.
Data sources
- Primary calculations: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty)
- Market context: APCIQ monthly statistics
- Methodology: https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/ (v2.1)
- Archives: https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/
Suggested citation
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MethodologyArchivesLatest bulletinThe Tardif Index™ South Shore is a neutral indicator of transaction conditions. It is neither a forecast nor investment advice. The conditions described relate to the month just ended and can change quickly.
Contact: David Tardif, real estate broker – Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty), 5227 Wellington Street, Verdun (QC) H4H 1N1, 514-418-1094 • info@enduranceimmobilier.com